Bad Math? Or Is It The Devil’s In The Modeling?

I went out about 1 this afternoon to finish up the shed, and it only took me about 45 minutes.

First up, I put in the 11 screws that lock the walls to the floor, and then installed the corner braces at the corners where the doors mount.


Next up I installed the Cane Bolt, which locks the left door to the door jam.

Rubbermaid Shed Cane Bolt

Then all I had left was to attach the door handle, and then install the ceremonial padlock, and I was done.

Rubbermaid Shed Finished with Lock

Of course now I have to get a base put together and tied down, and then I can move the shed over to it and bolt it down.

Then, I’ll be done done.

They’re finally starting to test people for antibodies to see if they’ve already had the WuFlu. Remember, according to the CDC and W.H.O., 80%-85% of people who contract the virus show little or no symptoms. I’m going to try and get tested as soon as possible, since I suspect that caught back around the first of March.

France is going all out of the mass prescribing of HCQ, hoping to dose the entire country cure-wise, and prophylactically as well.

Here’s another story on Ivermectin which is showing very good results. And it’s cheap, readily available, and FDA-recognized as safe to take,

And Drug Makers are ramping up on producing HCQ

When is a walk not a walk?

San Francisco police can’t figure out who to arrest, and for what.

The order, issued by the Mayor says this.

The order states that all travel — including walking and biking — is forbidden; however, the order also states that “Individuals may go on a walk, get exercise, or take a pet outside […] as long as at least six feet of social distancing is maintained.” It also lists “essential activities” exempt from the order as including “outdoor activity, such as walking, hiking, or running provided that you maintain at least six feet of social distancing.”

Well, it seems perfectly clear to me.

Is It Bad Math, Or Is It The Devil’s In The Modeling.

More and more analysts and statisticians are looking at the statistical models being used by the CDC to predict the spread of the WuFlu and the resources, beds, and ventilators needed as the virus progresses. And they’re finding a lot of problems.

Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers Are a Fraction of Expected

The model projected:

United States Projection – that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)

Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)

Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)

Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)

Tennessee: Projection –  2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)

New York: Projection –  50,962;  Actual number – 18,368 (36%)

And Dr. Birx said this:

At White House press conference on Saturday, Dr. Birx said that coronavirus modelers are “re-evaluating all of their models in light of the level of the impact of the mitigation.” 

But this is the Money Shot:

“Just to be clear, we won’t know how valid the models are until we move all the way through the epidemic,” she said.

So she’s saying that we won’t know how accurate the models are until the epidemic is over.

Then what the hell good are the models?

Dr. Anthony Fauci, meanwhile, reportedly said during a recent meeting that disease models “don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.”

Then what the hell good are the models?

And remember these models were originally projecting 2.7 deaths in the U.S.

And is this why NYC is such a hotspot for the virus?

NYC Subway Social Distancing

This is the #2 Subway in NYC this past Friday.

But even with this, the number of coronavirus-related deaths in New York is dropping for the first time, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday during his daily press briefing. However, Cuomo emphasized that it’s “too early to tell” whether the drop is significant. The governor added that ICU admissions are also down, daily intubations are slightly down, and the hospital discharge rate is “way up.”

And in Kung Flu news you can use:

Cleaning Products Can Kill The COVID-19 Virus. Here’s What to Use in Your House.


Online calculator shows how much food you need for a 14-day quarantine so you can stop panic buying


Thought For The Day:

“The beauty of doing nothing is that you can do it perfectly. Only when you do something is it almost impossible to do it without mistakes. Therefore people who are contributing nothing to society, except their constant criticisms, can feel both intellectually and morally superior.” – Thomas Sowell


3 Responses to Bad Math? Or Is It The Devil’s In The Modeling?

  1. Linda says:

    Your blogroll needs serious updating. Sassy of On Da Road died as did Judy of Travels with Emma. You might want to go through all of them to see who else has stopped publishing. Or delete the whole list so you don’t send people looking for blogs that no longer exist. I like to follow links like your blogroll to see who else I might like to follow but finding out they died before I even started is not pleasant.

  2. Jerry Walter says:

    Yes…models can be off but I am glad they use them to see what very likely could happen….hopefully the quarantine and social distancing brought those numbers down…it would have been tragic if we hadn’t done this…it is my understanding that the numbers appear to be low because a number of cases have not been reported….we may not know until it’s over or maybe never..but thank God we have done what we did.

  3. Nancy K says:

    Models only work if you have good information to start with.  They had NO information, so I agree …. what good are the models??  The numbers are getting lower because there’s so much more testing going on, meaning it’s not as bad as they predicted.

    That’s San Francisco for ya and has been for the last 20 years.  It’s not going to get better any time soon.

    As for New York and their subway system, no wonder the virus has spread so fast there.  Hopefully this all will pass much sooner than expected.  Then they can rework their models.

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