Daily Archives: March 20, 2020
Do You Know Anyone . . .
I’ll get right to the point.
I think this whole mess is going to be over a lot quicker than most people think, or expect. That’s because the numbers just don’t add up.
During the Great World H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic of 2009, you remember that, don’t you, when the country shut down, and everyone hid out, the numbers were much, much worse.
Oh, you don’t. Neither do I. When you listen to the national news programs during that period, ‘H1N1, blah,blah, blah”. “And then in other news, the Cubs won today 5 to 2.”
W.H.O. declared H1N1 a World Pandemic in June 2009, By October over 1000 U.S. citizens were already dead. And by the time W.H.O. declared the pandemic over in August, 60+ million Americans had been infected, 270,000+ people had been hospitalized, and 12,469 people had died in the U.S. Worldwide, the CDC says around 500,000 people died during that time. Now this all took place in about six months.
I mentioned a few blogs ago, this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It gives real time tracking of the virus. So now if we look at today’s stats, we’ve got almost 20,000 total cases in the U.S., with 263 deaths as of 10pm CDT tonight.
This gives us a mortality rate of about 1.3%, about 10 times the rate of the H1N1. Now the percentage seems so low as to almost be negligible, but the ‘10 times’ catches your eye.
But I think this rate is going to drop precipitously in the next few weeks, ironically, because the number of cases is going to skyrocket as more and more people are tested.
Remember, according to the experts, between 80% and 85% of people contract the virus and have little or no symptoms. But as some of these people started showing up in the testing, the number of infected will rise, maybe to even double or triple the present number.
But I don’t think the number of deaths will come anywhere close to tracking that rise. So the mortality rate will fall.
But the real question is, as this happens, making all these panic closings, etc. seem overblown, will anyone admit it and stop talking about this all lasting another six months?
We’ll see.
Finishing up, one of the online forums I frequent put out a call to its 35,000+ members, wanting to know if anyone personally knew of anyone who had contracted the Kung Flu. That’s not somebody’s 2nd cousin’s mailman, but they actually KNOW the person.
And in the last three days, not one of the 35,000 said they did.
How about you?
Do you actually know someone?
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Thought For The Day:
“It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into” – Jonathan Swift
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