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Do You Know Anyone . . .

I’ll get right to the point.

I think this whole mess is going to be over a lot quicker than most people think,  or expect. That’s because the numbers just don’t add up.

During the Great World H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic of 2009, you remember that, don’t you, when the country shut down, and everyone hid out, the numbers were much, much worse.

Oh, you don’t. Neither do I. When you listen to the national news programs during that period, ‘H1N1, blah,blah, blah”. “And then in other news, the Cubs won today 5 to 2.”

W.H.O. declared H1N1 a World Pandemic in June 2009,  By October over 1000 U.S. citizens were already dead. And by the time W.H.O. declared the pandemic over in August, 60+ million Americans had been infected, 270,000+ people had been hospitalized, and 12,469 people had died in the U.S. Worldwide, the CDC says around 500,000 people died during that time. Now this all took place in about six months.

I mentioned a few blogs ago, this website:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It gives real time tracking of the virus. So now if we look at today’s stats, we’ve got almost 20,000 total cases in the U.S., with 263 deaths as of 10pm CDT tonight.

This gives us a mortality rate of about 1.3%, about 10 times the rate of the H1N1. Now the percentage seems so low as to almost be negligible, but the ‘10 times’ catches your eye.

But I think this rate is going to drop precipitously in the next few weeks, ironically, because the number of cases is going to skyrocket as more and more people are tested.

Remember, according to the experts, between 80% and 85% of people contract the virus and have little or no symptoms. But as some of these people started showing up in the testing, the number of infected will rise, maybe to even double or triple the present number.

But I don’t think the number of deaths will come anywhere close to tracking that rise. So the mortality rate will fall.

But the real question is, as this happens, making all these panic closings, etc. seem overblown, will anyone admit it and stop talking about this all lasting another six months?

We’ll see.

Finishing up, one of the online forums I frequent put out a call to its 35,000+ members, wanting to know if anyone personally knew of anyone who had contracted the Kung Flu. That’s not somebody’s 2nd cousin’s mailman, but they actually KNOW the person.

And in the last three days, not one of the 35,000 said they did.

How about you?

Do you actually know someone?

g

Another Kung Flu Chart
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Thought For The Day:

“It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into” – Jonathan Swift

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5 Responses to Do You Know Anyone . . .

  1. Elizabeth says:

    As usual, you make good points, Greg!!  No, we don’t know anyone with it…well, where would you get a test anyway?  Hubby has been coughing, soon to go on 4 weeks, but no fever, no problem not breathing…just a very annoying cough. I figure it is either another flu, or more likely, it is allergy season!!  Buds and trees and flowers coming out…he has always been miserable in Spring…but no where to get tested anyway, even if we wanted to.  Been nearly 2 weeks since I have seen TP in the stores however…well, if we wanted to stand in line for hours before a store opening…maybe.  There are some other solutions however, to TP…and I am going to be using one.  We just may figure out some BETTER nicer ways to do things.  Daughter said, Alright I wanted a bidet anyway…now I am getting one.  So if the merchants wanted to sell LESS TP in time to come…well, some of us will need a lot less!!  We will need to save all the money we can, because the price gougers are hot at work.  CVS which most unfortunately handles my ins. meds, INTENTIONALLY charged me almost twice as much for my main med…I did not take it at my Costco Pharmacy (thankfully still willing to handle things for me).  The past year I have had to pay about $450 for 90 days…today?  They wanted $780.  So Costco said they got the “penalty” removed…PENALTY??????  What on earth does that mean…never heard that term to do with meds!!!  I am steamed…but that is fine.  Right now we live so close to the Insurance Commissioner’s office, once the crazy dies off and they are open again, Guess where I am going?? Meanwhile, gathering up all kinds of info online that others have suffered at their hands.  I so wish they would be totally shut down for the illegal things they pull…this is certainly NOT the first time this has happened…other similar and even worse things they have pulled on me in past years.  I am so mad because hubby is a 6 yr Navy vet from Viet Nam era, plus retired from the Army Corps of Engineers…he could have made twice the pay in the civilian world…and all he wanted in return was a decent insurance…so thanks a great lot GEHA!!!  Meanwhile, in the midst of all the sick, here I am at Costco for 1 hour at first…went away finally and it took another 30 minutes to complete the transaction.  Somehow I do not think that is what Mr. Trump has in mind when we are told to stay home.  And how are we supposed to do that with CVS messing about???  By the way, Mr. Trump is duped on any of the floroquinolones being a good med…Hubby is semi-invalid…not sure how long till he will be complete invalid…due to having taken CIPRO 10 yrs ago…a gradual decline, but it continues…so no one in their right mind ought to be one of those guinea pigs!!

  2. Rob says:

    In a couple of weeks we’ll know … especially if we keep following the same day to day path as Italy.

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

    We do have more people than Italy but we’re got more centers of infection too.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    So we wait… I hope you’re right!

  3. Jerry Walter says:

    Yes…we know one who has been diagnosed with COVID-19…she is in that 40-50 age group but very healthy. We are being non social to friends and family as my wife and I had taken our spring-break vacation but found ourselves isolated at home, not fun. Wife works in hospital, not patient contact, but administrative, so Monday needs to be at work and healthy..she has Asthma so is being very cautious. Website offered very interesting information.

  4. Nancy Kissack says:

    Nope … don’t know a single person who has the flu.  I agree it’s mostly hype and fear mongering.  What’s more scary than the flu is the reaction from people hoarding food and of all things, toilet paper!!  They should be getting cough drops!!  I think they were hoping Trump would fall flat, but he surprised them by taking action.  Hoping it all ends soon.

  5. Brett says:

    Nope haven’t heard of any family or friends that caught this virus. I believe this is all been blown out of proportion.

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